This game on paper shapes up to be a blowout. As we all know wiht bowl games, motivation is a key always a key to this. How excited/deflated is each team to be in this bowl? I will say that BYU has shown over the years to be excited to be in any bowl game.
If you were to use just power ratings, this would show BYU at 52 and UTEP at 114. UTEP SOS is awful and the teams they have beat are not good at all( hence the awful power rating).
On the other hand:
This isn't a new phenomenon -- UTEP's win over BYU in 1985 as a 36-point dog was the biggest upset ever until the Syracuse/UL and Stanford/USC upsets in 2007 -- but under Price favorites of 7 to 17 points in UTEP games are just 25-16 straight up and 14-27 ATS.
On top of that, UTEP finished final exams last week (Wednesday, I believe), while BYU's finals run from Monday through Friday this week.
All of that being said, I will have a medium play on BYU. As for the confidence pools I am in, this is in the top 5 games for me. UTEP may find a way to cover, but they do not have the talent to win this game outright. I could lean a little towards the under since BYU has been improving each game with thier def, but betting an under in a bowl game is a risky bet.
No comments:
Post a Comment