First, let me start off by saying, I am amazed that little ceasers is still in business and I think they have far and away the worst pizza.
Anyway, this game started with toledo -2 and now Toledo is +1. The MAC is 1-11 ATS the last 12 bowl games. I am not saying the sun belt is that much better( floriday international).
This game should only be bet because it will be the only game on tv, and people will want to bet it. I would lean towards the over of 55. I have fl. intl in 2, 4-team teases and that is enough action on the game for me.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Poinsetta Bowl and Hawaii Bowl
I will be away from a computer for both of these games. They both have interesting matchups.
The Poinsetta bowl has a triple option team navy against a team that has two nfl wr's on it in San Diego St. The game is played in San Diego where over 10k navy fans will be there due to the naval base next to it. The one condition that no one really knows about is the fact that the field has been under 3 inches of water the last two days and how will that affect the game.
You have to look at previous games this year. SDS stopped the option with AF and they played Utah in a monsoon and still had over 500 yards against them. I do think Navy runs the option way better then AF, but the problem is what happens if SDS goes up 2 td's. I dont think Navy can come back. I like SDS -3 in this game. The total I am scared of so I am laying off of it.
For the Hawaii bowl, you have two spread offenses that are allergic to defense. Hawaii is -10 and I am staying away from this line. Tulsa has the offense to win this game. Either way I will lay a large bet on the over of 73( up to 74 now at some places). If someone wins this game 35-31, then I will take the loss, but I see that being closer to the halftime score then the final score.
The Poinsetta bowl has a triple option team navy against a team that has two nfl wr's on it in San Diego St. The game is played in San Diego where over 10k navy fans will be there due to the naval base next to it. The one condition that no one really knows about is the fact that the field has been under 3 inches of water the last two days and how will that affect the game.
You have to look at previous games this year. SDS stopped the option with AF and they played Utah in a monsoon and still had over 500 yards against them. I do think Navy runs the option way better then AF, but the problem is what happens if SDS goes up 2 td's. I dont think Navy can come back. I like SDS -3 in this game. The total I am scared of so I am laying off of it.
For the Hawaii bowl, you have two spread offenses that are allergic to defense. Hawaii is -10 and I am staying away from this line. Tulsa has the offense to win this game. Either way I will lay a large bet on the over of 73( up to 74 now at some places). If someone wins this game 35-31, then I will take the loss, but I see that being closer to the halftime score then the final score.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Las Vegas Bowl, bowl #6
Utah vs. Boise St. Boise st -16.5, 0u 57.5
On a quick side note favorites are 5-0 so far this bowl season( 4-0-1 depending when you got the line for lville).
On to this game...i can look at all the stats and numbers I want, and either way I see it Boise rolls in this game. The only things I see holding them back would be are they down and de-motivated since instead of being in a BCS game they are playing another non AQ school in a crap bowl game, the weather( it has been raining for 2 straight days and will be raining through most of the game), has partying in Vegas worn them out, and finally, how long will Peterson keep the starters in if it is a blowout( he is known to pull his whole team in the mid 3rd quarter).
For utah, they have won 9 straight bowl games, they have great coaching, but I just think they overall talent they have can not match Boise one bit. When Utah has faced anyone resembling a good defense lately they have scored 3 and 7( nd and TCU). They did put up 38 against San Diego St( this will be talked about more when I go huge on the nvay/SDS over). I know Utah will be motivated and I know they had the fight in the casino and the Utah kids are tweeting all types of trash talk, but at the end of the day Boise is just to good. If Utah finds a way to sneak in the back door at the end, that will be something I can live with.
As for the total, I am afraid of this a little, becasue Boise could shut them down 31-10 or they could totally blow them out and score 58 themselves. I will be going real small on the total, but I will play some props.
Plays for this game( this is also in my top 3 for Boise to win in my confidence pool).
Bets on this game are( and of course there will be a 2nd half bet:
All these for 1 unit:
STRAIGHT BET
[210] BOISE STATE -16-120 (B+½)
STRAIGHT BET( this is the alternate line paying +165)
[7006] ALT1-BOISE STATE -21½+165
STRAIGHT BET
[7157] TOTAL o21-110
(TOT PTS 1ST HALF-BOISE STATE vrs TOT PTS 1ST HALF-BOISE STATE)
STRAIGHT BET
[1210] 1H BOISE STATE -10-110
2 unit tease:
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[102] STEELERS (PIT) -1½-110 (B+13)
[210] BOISE STATE -3½-110 (B+13)
[211] TOTAL o47½-110 (B+13)
(NAVY vrs SAN DIEGO STATE)
[213] TOTAL o60-110 (B+13)
(TULSA vrs HAWAII)
2 unit tease:
3T SUPER TEASER Ties lose
[210] BOISE STATE -6½-110 (B+10)
[513] JAZZ (UTAH) +2-110 (B+8)
[517] ROCKETS (HOUS) +9-110 (B+8)
On a quick side note favorites are 5-0 so far this bowl season( 4-0-1 depending when you got the line for lville).
On to this game...i can look at all the stats and numbers I want, and either way I see it Boise rolls in this game. The only things I see holding them back would be are they down and de-motivated since instead of being in a BCS game they are playing another non AQ school in a crap bowl game, the weather( it has been raining for 2 straight days and will be raining through most of the game), has partying in Vegas worn them out, and finally, how long will Peterson keep the starters in if it is a blowout( he is known to pull his whole team in the mid 3rd quarter).
For utah, they have won 9 straight bowl games, they have great coaching, but I just think they overall talent they have can not match Boise one bit. When Utah has faced anyone resembling a good defense lately they have scored 3 and 7( nd and TCU). They did put up 38 against San Diego St( this will be talked about more when I go huge on the nvay/SDS over). I know Utah will be motivated and I know they had the fight in the casino and the Utah kids are tweeting all types of trash talk, but at the end of the day Boise is just to good. If Utah finds a way to sneak in the back door at the end, that will be something I can live with.
As for the total, I am afraid of this a little, becasue Boise could shut them down 31-10 or they could totally blow them out and score 58 themselves. I will be going real small on the total, but I will play some props.
Plays for this game( this is also in my top 3 for Boise to win in my confidence pool).
Bets on this game are( and of course there will be a 2nd half bet:
All these for 1 unit:
STRAIGHT BET
[210] BOISE STATE -16-120 (B+½)
STRAIGHT BET( this is the alternate line paying +165)
[7006] ALT1-BOISE STATE -21½+165
STRAIGHT BET
[7157] TOTAL o21-110
(TOT PTS 1ST HALF-BOISE STATE vrs TOT PTS 1ST HALF-BOISE STATE)
STRAIGHT BET
[1210] 1H BOISE STATE -10-110
2 unit tease:
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[102] STEELERS (PIT) -1½-110 (B+13)
[210] BOISE STATE -3½-110 (B+13)
[211] TOTAL o47½-110 (B+13)
(NAVY vrs SAN DIEGO STATE)
[213] TOTAL o60-110 (B+13)
(TULSA vrs HAWAII)
2 unit tease:
3T SUPER TEASER Ties lose
[210] BOISE STATE -6½-110 (B+10)
[513] JAZZ (UTAH) +2-110 (B+8)
[517] ROCKETS (HOUS) +9-110 (B+8)
Monday, December 20, 2010
St. Petersburg Bowl
Louivilee vs So Miss, lville -2.5, o/u 57.5
This game doesnt stand out to me at all. So Miss has a good passing attack with 2 wr's over 1000 yards and a good RB. lville is a pretty one dimensional offense. I dont really have a lean to this game, but I think So. Miss wins this game outright. I am actually not betting on this game, but if I were to bet, I would lean towards the under and so miss.
After doing a little more research, I have come to the conclusion that I think So Miss is just a better team. I am taking them and also taking the team over. They have only not scored 30 points 1 time this year.
Got this from another blog, but it is great information...
S.Miss Offense: Souther Miss can score, flat out score.They scored 40+ 7 times this season. However this is against terrible defensive teams such as #118 E Carolina, #117 Memphis, #96 Houston, #83 Tulsa, etc. They were able to put 31 points on Central Florida #12, however they only scored 13 at La Tech.
They are #15 in total offense, #21 rushing, #31 passing and #15 in scoring. Led by Junior QB Austin Davis with 18 pass TDs and 10 rushing TDs. Strangely Tulane was able to hold him to only 102 yards but Tulane is ranked #29 against the pass.
Louisville Defense: #10 in total yards, #9 against the pass, #47 rushing yards and #15 in points allowed. They allowed 20 or less points in 7 of 12 games including shutting out UCONN, 13 to Rutgers, 17 to WVA, 0 to Memphis while SMiss gave Memphis 19points.
Louisville Offense: Froman and Burke have combined for 19tds and 7 INTS. Both are Seniors.
Senior Running Back Billal Powell has a 6.3 avg, 1330 yards, 10 rushing tds and 3 receiving tds.
#32 rushing yards, #66 total yards, and #71 in points scored.
Southern Miss Defense: #103 against the pass, #80 in points allowed, but #14 against the rush.
Angles and Tidbits: Southern Miss has a great offense and Louisville has a considerably better defense and probably much better than S.Miss has seen this year.
Louisville Defense hasn't allowed a 200+ passing yard game to an opponent in their last 6 games after getting tourched by Cincy.
A long layoff between games as both teams haven't played since 11/26.
Louisville will have to contain the passing game to win. Southern Miss has to out shoot Louisville.
Louisville #39 in turnover margin, Southern Miss #18
My pick:
Louisville lost to Cincy who played this exact same style of uptempo offense and although they got better defensively, they did not play this style the rest of the year.
They say defense wins championships, but in these bowl games alot of times offense is what wins and I don't see Louisville holding down S.Miss as they are very very fast and I beleive S.Miss can hold down Louisville's offense.
This game doesnt stand out to me at all. So Miss has a good passing attack with 2 wr's over 1000 yards and a good RB. lville is a pretty one dimensional offense. I dont really have a lean to this game, but I think So. Miss wins this game outright. I am actually not betting on this game, but if I were to bet, I would lean towards the under and so miss.
After doing a little more research, I have come to the conclusion that I think So Miss is just a better team. I am taking them and also taking the team over. They have only not scored 30 points 1 time this year.
Got this from another blog, but it is great information...
S.Miss Offense: Souther Miss can score, flat out score.They scored 40+ 7 times this season. However this is against terrible defensive teams such as #118 E Carolina, #117 Memphis, #96 Houston, #83 Tulsa, etc. They were able to put 31 points on Central Florida #12, however they only scored 13 at La Tech.
They are #15 in total offense, #21 rushing, #31 passing and #15 in scoring. Led by Junior QB Austin Davis with 18 pass TDs and 10 rushing TDs. Strangely Tulane was able to hold him to only 102 yards but Tulane is ranked #29 against the pass.
Louisville Defense: #10 in total yards, #9 against the pass, #47 rushing yards and #15 in points allowed. They allowed 20 or less points in 7 of 12 games including shutting out UCONN, 13 to Rutgers, 17 to WVA, 0 to Memphis while SMiss gave Memphis 19points.
Louisville Offense: Froman and Burke have combined for 19tds and 7 INTS. Both are Seniors.
Senior Running Back Billal Powell has a 6.3 avg, 1330 yards, 10 rushing tds and 3 receiving tds.
#32 rushing yards, #66 total yards, and #71 in points scored.
Southern Miss Defense: #103 against the pass, #80 in points allowed, but #14 against the rush.
Angles and Tidbits: Southern Miss has a great offense and Louisville has a considerably better defense and probably much better than S.Miss has seen this year.
Louisville Defense hasn't allowed a 200+ passing yard game to an opponent in their last 6 games after getting tourched by Cincy.
A long layoff between games as both teams haven't played since 11/26.
Louisville will have to contain the passing game to win. Southern Miss has to out shoot Louisville.
Louisville #39 in turnover margin, Southern Miss #18
My pick:
Louisville lost to Cincy who played this exact same style of uptempo offense and although they got better defensively, they did not play this style the rest of the year.
They say defense wins championships, but in these bowl games alot of times offense is what wins and I don't see Louisville holding down S.Miss as they are very very fast and I beleive S.Miss can hold down Louisville's offense.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
12/19 bets
Some of these have been pending with other games, but we are taking a lot of the bowl winnings and running it back today....
all these for 2 units..
STRAIGHT BET
[8155] TOTAL o28½-110
(TOTAL PTS BY PATRIOTS vrs TOTAL PTS BY PATRIOTS)
STRAIGHT BET
[8137] TOTAL o21-120
(TOTAL PTS BY SAINTS vrs TOTAL PTS BY SAINTS
STRAIGHT BET
[8109] TOTAL o21½-110
(TOTAL PTS BY JAGUARS vrs TOTAL PTS BY JAGUARS)
These are for 1 unit:
STRAIGHT BET
[320] BUCCANEERS (TB) -3-140 (B+1)
STRAIGHT BET
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -8-140 (B+1½)
STRAIGHT BET
[305] TOTAL o47-130 (B+1)
(TEXANS (HOU) vrs TITANS (TEN))
STRAIGHT BET
[304] TOTAL u43-120 (B+½)
(CHIEFS (KC) vrs RAMS (SL))
These are all 3 unit plays:
3T SUPER TEASER Ties lose
[302] CHARGERS (SD) -½-110 (B+10)
[321] TOTAL o33½-110 (B+10)
(SAINTS (NO) vrs RAVENS (BAL))
[202] BYU -1½-110 (B+10)
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[302] CHARGERS (SD) +2½-110 (B+13)
[302] TOTAL u58½-110 (B+13)
(NINERS (SF) vrs CHARGERS (SD))
[321] SAINTS (NO) +15-110 (B+13)
[202] BYU +1½-110 (B+13)
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[302] CHARGERS (SD) +2½-110 (B+13)
[307] TOTAL o36-110 (B+13)
(JAGUARS (JAX) vrs COLTS (IND))
[321] SAINTS (NO) +15-110 (B+13)
[326] STEELERS (PIT) +7-110 (B+13)
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[301] TOTAL o32-110 (B+13)
(NINERS (SF) vrs CHARGERS (SD))
[302] CHARGERS (SD) +2½-110 (B+13)
[321] SAINTS (NO) +15-110 (B+13)
[326] STEELERS (PIT) +7-110 (B+13
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[307] JAGUARS (JAX) +17½-110 (B+13)
[316] GIANTS (NYG) +10-110 (B+13)
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) +3½-110 (B+13)
[321] TOTAL o32-110 (B+13)
(SAINTS (NO) vrs RAVENS (BAL))
NBA and other nfl parlays:
50 to win 100
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[302] CHARGERS (SD) -530
[326] STEELERS (PIT) -235
[328] RAIDERS (OAK) -285
[202] BYU -420
25 to win 135
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[307] JAGUARS (JAX) +185
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -430
[320] BUCCANEERS (TB) -210
[328] RAIDERS (OAK) -400
20 to win 63
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -475
[319] LIONS (DET) +175
[328] RAIDERS (OAK) -400
this is 20 to win 378:
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[307] JAGUARS (JAX) +185
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -475
[319] LIONS (DET) +175
[321] SAINTS (NO) +110
All nba bets are for 40 each:
STRAIGHT BET
[809] HORNETS (NO) -3-140 (B+1½)
STRAIGHT BET
[807] ROCKETS (HOU) -3-120 (B+½)
STRAIGHT BET
[805] LAKERS (LAL) -7-120 (B+½)
STRAIGHT BET
[804] TOTAL u184-130 (B+1)
(HAWKS (ATL) vrs NETS (NJ))
STRAIGHT BET
[802] TOTAL u195-130 (B+1)
(PACERS (IND) vrs CELTICS (BOS))
all these for 2 units..
STRAIGHT BET
[8155] TOTAL o28½-110
(TOTAL PTS BY PATRIOTS vrs TOTAL PTS BY PATRIOTS)
STRAIGHT BET
[8137] TOTAL o21-120
(TOTAL PTS BY SAINTS vrs TOTAL PTS BY SAINTS
STRAIGHT BET
[8109] TOTAL o21½-110
(TOTAL PTS BY JAGUARS vrs TOTAL PTS BY JAGUARS)
These are for 1 unit:
STRAIGHT BET
[320] BUCCANEERS (TB) -3-140 (B+1)
STRAIGHT BET
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -8-140 (B+1½)
STRAIGHT BET
[305] TOTAL o47-130 (B+1)
(TEXANS (HOU) vrs TITANS (TEN))
STRAIGHT BET
[304] TOTAL u43-120 (B+½)
(CHIEFS (KC) vrs RAMS (SL))
These are all 3 unit plays:
3T SUPER TEASER Ties lose
[302] CHARGERS (SD) -½-110 (B+10)
[321] TOTAL o33½-110 (B+10)
(SAINTS (NO) vrs RAVENS (BAL))
[202] BYU -1½-110 (B+10)
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[302] CHARGERS (SD) +2½-110 (B+13)
[302] TOTAL u58½-110 (B+13)
(NINERS (SF) vrs CHARGERS (SD))
[321] SAINTS (NO) +15-110 (B+13)
[202] BYU +1½-110 (B+13)
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[302] CHARGERS (SD) +2½-110 (B+13)
[307] TOTAL o36-110 (B+13)
(JAGUARS (JAX) vrs COLTS (IND))
[321] SAINTS (NO) +15-110 (B+13)
[326] STEELERS (PIT) +7-110 (B+13)
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[301] TOTAL o32-110 (B+13)
(NINERS (SF) vrs CHARGERS (SD))
[302] CHARGERS (SD) +2½-110 (B+13)
[321] SAINTS (NO) +15-110 (B+13)
[326] STEELERS (PIT) +7-110 (B+13
4T MONSTER TEAS Ties lose
[307] JAGUARS (JAX) +17½-110 (B+13)
[316] GIANTS (NYG) +10-110 (B+13)
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) +3½-110 (B+13)
[321] TOTAL o32-110 (B+13)
(SAINTS (NO) vrs RAVENS (BAL))
NBA and other nfl parlays:
50 to win 100
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[302] CHARGERS (SD) -530
[326] STEELERS (PIT) -235
[328] RAIDERS (OAK) -285
[202] BYU -420
25 to win 135
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[307] JAGUARS (JAX) +185
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -430
[320] BUCCANEERS (TB) -210
[328] RAIDERS (OAK) -400
20 to win 63
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -475
[319] LIONS (DET) +175
[328] RAIDERS (OAK) -400
this is 20 to win 378:
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[307] JAGUARS (JAX) +185
[318] COWBOYS (DAL) -475
[319] LIONS (DET) +175
[321] SAINTS (NO) +110
All nba bets are for 40 each:
STRAIGHT BET
[809] HORNETS (NO) -3-140 (B+1½)
STRAIGHT BET
[807] ROCKETS (HOU) -3-120 (B+½)
STRAIGHT BET
[805] LAKERS (LAL) -7-120 (B+½)
STRAIGHT BET
[804] TOTAL u184-130 (B+1)
(HAWKS (ATL) vrs NETS (NJ))
STRAIGHT BET
[802] TOTAL u195-130 (B+1)
(PACERS (IND) vrs CELTICS (BOS))
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
New Orleans Bowl, Bowl #3
Ohio vs. Troy, Troy -2 o/u 58
This game is a junk game and you have to be a true degenerate to bet on this. I will be all over Troy on this game. Ohio has given up over 300 yards passing their last 5 games, they lost their starting LB and now their best DB to injuries. Throw in the home crowd that Troy will have, and I have to give all sides to Troy.
As far as the total goes, I think this number is dead on as I see a 34-24 type game, so I will be laying off it straigh up( may put it in a tease). In a confidence pool, I would have this in the bottom third. Even though I say all this about Troy, these are still two crap teams so who knows.
This game is a junk game and you have to be a true degenerate to bet on this. I will be all over Troy on this game. Ohio has given up over 300 yards passing their last 5 games, they lost their starting LB and now their best DB to injuries. Throw in the home crowd that Troy will have, and I have to give all sides to Troy.
As far as the total goes, I think this number is dead on as I see a 34-24 type game, so I will be laying off it straigh up( may put it in a tease). In a confidence pool, I would have this in the bottom third. Even though I say all this about Troy, these are still two crap teams so who knows.
Actual Bowl Bets
As I bet more and more, I tend to lose track of my bets. This will help me track eery single bet I make during bowl season. I have always had success over the years betting on the bowl games, so we will see how it goes this year. I tend to wait until very close to the game to bet it, since you never know about suspensions, coach changes, weather, etc., but some of these I have already bet ahead of time. I will update in the comment section each time I ad an bet. So far I have these already in:
All placed on 12/10-
Fresno +2, 1 unit
GT +3, 1 unit
UGA -5, 1 unit
Wisc, +3, 2 units
4 team tease, 2 units:
army-won
over army-won
navy-won
fresno +14-pending
4 team tease, 2 units:
ravens-won
over ravens-won
giants-won
BYU +1.5-pending
All placed on 12/10-
Fresno +2, 1 unit
GT +3, 1 unit
UGA -5, 1 unit
Wisc, +3, 2 units
4 team tease, 2 units:
army-won
over army-won
navy-won
fresno +14-pending
4 team tease, 2 units:
ravens-won
over ravens-won
giants-won
BYU +1.5-pending
Humanitarian Bowl, Bowl game #2
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno, pretty much a pick -1 everywhere, o/u 59
This game has stay away written all over it.( of course we will all still be on it, because we are degenerates).
You have a NI team who is avg. 6.4 yards per rush( more then auburn and org) and they pretty much dominate every single stat on paper. You then have the intangibles with them. Their Head coach accepted the job at Minnesota and took his coordinator with him. Minn wanted him to start recruiting right away and not coach the bowl game. Their new coach( Dave Doeren, from Wisconsin) may be a good coach, but to ask someone to come in this late to a team/players he doesn't know and start coaching is tough.
On the other hand, Pat Hill is a great coach and will always have his team ready to play.
Suspensions:
Hill said linebacker Kyle Knox, receiver Matt Lindsay and linebacker Daniel Salinas did not accompany the team for the bowl game in Boise, Idaho.
Knox is second on the team with 74 tackles. Lindsay has 14 catches for 208 yards.
At the end of the day, I feel NI is a better team, but I will still take Fresno in this game as a small bet and in a confidence pool, they are in the bottom third. I will put a medium play on the over. I know conventional wisdom states that a running team lends towards the under due to running out the clock, but when you can eat up chunks of yards like that, scores happen a lot and play action produces tons of points. Fresno and the over are my plays for this
This game has stay away written all over it.( of course we will all still be on it, because we are degenerates).
You have a NI team who is avg. 6.4 yards per rush( more then auburn and org) and they pretty much dominate every single stat on paper. You then have the intangibles with them. Their Head coach accepted the job at Minnesota and took his coordinator with him. Minn wanted him to start recruiting right away and not coach the bowl game. Their new coach( Dave Doeren, from Wisconsin) may be a good coach, but to ask someone to come in this late to a team/players he doesn't know and start coaching is tough.
On the other hand, Pat Hill is a great coach and will always have his team ready to play.
Suspensions:
Hill said linebacker Kyle Knox, receiver Matt Lindsay and linebacker Daniel Salinas did not accompany the team for the bowl game in Boise, Idaho.
Knox is second on the team with 74 tackles. Lindsay has 14 catches for 208 yards.
At the end of the day, I feel NI is a better team, but I will still take Fresno in this game as a small bet and in a confidence pool, they are in the bottom third. I will put a medium play on the over. I know conventional wisdom states that a running team lends towards the under due to running out the clock, but when you can eat up chunks of yards like that, scores happen a lot and play action produces tons of points. Fresno and the over are my plays for this
New Mexico Bowl, bowl game #1
Utep vs. Byu in New Mexico. Byu -11.5, o/u is 50.
This game on paper shapes up to be a blowout. As we all know wiht bowl games, motivation is a key always a key to this. How excited/deflated is each team to be in this bowl? I will say that BYU has shown over the years to be excited to be in any bowl game.
If you were to use just power ratings, this would show BYU at 52 and UTEP at 114. UTEP SOS is awful and the teams they have beat are not good at all( hence the awful power rating).
On the other hand:
This game on paper shapes up to be a blowout. As we all know wiht bowl games, motivation is a key always a key to this. How excited/deflated is each team to be in this bowl? I will say that BYU has shown over the years to be excited to be in any bowl game.
If you were to use just power ratings, this would show BYU at 52 and UTEP at 114. UTEP SOS is awful and the teams they have beat are not good at all( hence the awful power rating).
On the other hand:
This isn't a new phenomenon -- UTEP's win over BYU in 1985 as a 36-point dog was the biggest upset ever until the Syracuse/UL and Stanford/USC upsets in 2007 -- but under Price favorites of 7 to 17 points in UTEP games are just 25-16 straight up and 14-27 ATS.
On top of that, UTEP finished final exams last week (Wednesday, I believe), while BYU's finals run from Monday through Friday this week.
All of that being said, I will have a medium play on BYU. As for the confidence pools I am in, this is in the top 5 games for me. UTEP may find a way to cover, but they do not have the talent to win this game outright. I could lean a little towards the under since BYU has been improving each game with thier def, but betting an under in a bowl game is a risky bet.
Vacation ruins a diet!!!
For the last 2 months, I have been so good with running, working out, trying to eat better, not drinking as much etc. Then, I went on a Trip to Texas for 4 days. Between the airports and the restaurants, I cancelled out everything I have worked on!!! It was totally worth it, and I love vacations, it is just funny when I look back at how awful I ate( even though it tasted great) when I was on vacation( however, I did go running once down there). I have tried to re-cap from what I remember everything I ate and drank, so I can look at this as a reminder of how not to eat now that I am back home.
Friday:
- pretzel bites and a soda at airport( with cheese dipping sauce) going to Austin.
- slice of pizza in carry-over airport
- Gatorade and sweetarts in hotel room
- chips and salsa at dinner
- steak fajita ( tex mex style) for dinner
- 2 beers and a mexican martini at dinner
- 3-4 liquor drinks, 3-4 shots, 2-3 beers at bars after dinner
Saturday:
- Gatorade
- fountain soda coke
- breakfast taco and steak taco for brunch
- 2 whiskey drinks at dinner
- 2 pieces of bread at dinner( very nice steak house)
- 8 oz. filet
- side of asparagus
- side of au gratin potatoes
Sunday:
- double cheeseburger
- fries
- large fountain soda
- large calzone
- slice of pizza
Monday:
- brisket sandwich
- beer
- sausage
- 1/2 pd cheeseburger
- Cheetos
- hot chocolate with baileys and whiskey in it
- 4 beers
Tuesday:
- iced coffee
- sausage, egg and cheese biscuit
- hash browns
- 4 slices of pizza
Friday:
- pretzel bites and a soda at airport( with cheese dipping sauce) going to Austin.
- slice of pizza in carry-over airport
- Gatorade and sweetarts in hotel room
- chips and salsa at dinner
- steak fajita ( tex mex style) for dinner
- 2 beers and a mexican martini at dinner
- 3-4 liquor drinks, 3-4 shots, 2-3 beers at bars after dinner
Saturday:
- Gatorade
- fountain soda coke
- breakfast taco and steak taco for brunch
- 2 whiskey drinks at dinner
- 2 pieces of bread at dinner( very nice steak house)
- 8 oz. filet
- side of asparagus
- side of au gratin potatoes
Sunday:
- double cheeseburger
- fries
- large fountain soda
- large calzone
- slice of pizza
Monday:
- brisket sandwich
- beer
- sausage
- 1/2 pd cheeseburger
- Cheetos
- hot chocolate with baileys and whiskey in it
- 4 beers
Tuesday:
- iced coffee
- sausage, egg and cheese biscuit
- hash browns
- 4 slices of pizza
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Bowl Season-watching and betting on it.
Bowl Season is now here. This is not only great for any college football fan, but it is also great for a football better. These games give fans a chance to see teams that they may not normally get to see and also a chance to see some match ups( bc of conference, money, etc) that they would never be able to see during the regular season.
As far as the games go, there will always be teams that make certain bowls that will be discussed and teams that did not deserve it( think of the ncaa bracket when a team is a #5 seed and everyone says they should have been a 10 seed) and you will also see teams that deserve to be in a bowl game or in a certain bowl game( look at az. state this year ).
As for the gambling side of it, it is also a great time for ncaa bettors/fans. You have plenty of time to evaluate and study each game. You have, for the most part( new years day etc. get a little busy) only 1-2 games a day, so you are not betting a huge amount of games on one day. If you have been betting on the games all year and know you teams, bowl season is always the time to pad your winnings( or re-coup losses) for the ncaa year.
When it comes to capping the bowl games, you have to look a little past how you would normally cap. Most bettors, or at least the ones that really care, will all use the same things. Power ratings, injuries, home field, previous match ups, etc. Obviously, the biggest differential and the biggest decision maker is your personal feelings towards the game. When it comes to bowl games, a lot of those same principals are still in play, but you have to consider some other things. First, home field advantage is not something you can just figure out. You have to do a little more research to see how many tickets each school was allotted, how many of said tickets were sold, and how many were bought by the other school. This is all information that can be found online. There are random occurrences where a team is very, very close to their home field, but that is a rarity during bowl season.
Next, you have to pay attention to motivation. Yes, this should be looked at for every game during the regular season s far as must-win games and things like that, but in bowl games it is a whole different animal. We see this every year, you have teams(think Oklahoma) that are disappointed in either their overall season or disappointed in the crappy bowl they got sent to instead of a good bowl they were hoping for. These are still college kids and unlike the pros, emotions play a huge factor in this. You need to look at both teams playing and take a look at their season. Did they go 7-5 and they are ecstatic to even make a bowl game( think Washington, army, etc) or did they go 8-4 and they are crushed because they were thinking they should be a 10-2 game. The point is, dont just see a team you assume is way better and will win/cover. You have to think about if they have given up on the season or if this bowl will make their whole season.
Another thing to pay close attention to, at least way more then the regular season games is suspensions for either a half or the game. I bring this up because the past always repeats itself, no matter what every coach will have you believe. You have so many games in so many cities where these kids have never been. Most of these teams are there at least a week in advance and every season you see people out missing curfew, you have people out drinking etc, and every year key people get suspended from a bowl game. This is more of a problem with the bowl games in huge, fun cities such as Miami, Vegas, Austin, etc, but again, make sure you pay attention to this.
Another thing you have to pay attention to( more for overs) is certain key players that are either seniors or juniors that you know are leaving school( moore, luck, locker, etc). You see coaches wanting to show them off and help their draft status. The game plan isnt much different then it normally would be, but when it comes down to the 4th quarter and late in the game, if it is a blow out, you seem to see these coaches leave their players in and let them show off a little more for the scouts etc. They also want to show respect to these players that have led their teams for the last couple years, and they dont want them finishing their season on the bench. This is not a stead-fast thing. There are also plenty of coaches, that will take a game that is starting to get to blow-out level and they will have in all of their subs to give them the bowl game experience.
There are plenty of other variables that go into betting into bowl games, but these are just some of the things that stick out for bowl game betting as compared to your normal college football betting.
This should be a great bowl season, and I will be posting full write-ups for each game as I do some more research on them.
As far as the games go, there will always be teams that make certain bowls that will be discussed and teams that did not deserve it( think of the ncaa bracket when a team is a #5 seed and everyone says they should have been a 10 seed) and you will also see teams that deserve to be in a bowl game or in a certain bowl game( look at az. state this year ).
As for the gambling side of it, it is also a great time for ncaa bettors/fans. You have plenty of time to evaluate and study each game. You have, for the most part( new years day etc. get a little busy) only 1-2 games a day, so you are not betting a huge amount of games on one day. If you have been betting on the games all year and know you teams, bowl season is always the time to pad your winnings( or re-coup losses) for the ncaa year.
When it comes to capping the bowl games, you have to look a little past how you would normally cap. Most bettors, or at least the ones that really care, will all use the same things. Power ratings, injuries, home field, previous match ups, etc. Obviously, the biggest differential and the biggest decision maker is your personal feelings towards the game. When it comes to bowl games, a lot of those same principals are still in play, but you have to consider some other things. First, home field advantage is not something you can just figure out. You have to do a little more research to see how many tickets each school was allotted, how many of said tickets were sold, and how many were bought by the other school. This is all information that can be found online. There are random occurrences where a team is very, very close to their home field, but that is a rarity during bowl season.
Next, you have to pay attention to motivation. Yes, this should be looked at for every game during the regular season s far as must-win games and things like that, but in bowl games it is a whole different animal. We see this every year, you have teams(think Oklahoma) that are disappointed in either their overall season or disappointed in the crappy bowl they got sent to instead of a good bowl they were hoping for. These are still college kids and unlike the pros, emotions play a huge factor in this. You need to look at both teams playing and take a look at their season. Did they go 7-5 and they are ecstatic to even make a bowl game( think Washington, army, etc) or did they go 8-4 and they are crushed because they were thinking they should be a 10-2 game. The point is, dont just see a team you assume is way better and will win/cover. You have to think about if they have given up on the season or if this bowl will make their whole season.
Another thing to pay close attention to, at least way more then the regular season games is suspensions for either a half or the game. I bring this up because the past always repeats itself, no matter what every coach will have you believe. You have so many games in so many cities where these kids have never been. Most of these teams are there at least a week in advance and every season you see people out missing curfew, you have people out drinking etc, and every year key people get suspended from a bowl game. This is more of a problem with the bowl games in huge, fun cities such as Miami, Vegas, Austin, etc, but again, make sure you pay attention to this.
Another thing you have to pay attention to( more for overs) is certain key players that are either seniors or juniors that you know are leaving school( moore, luck, locker, etc). You see coaches wanting to show them off and help their draft status. The game plan isnt much different then it normally would be, but when it comes down to the 4th quarter and late in the game, if it is a blow out, you seem to see these coaches leave their players in and let them show off a little more for the scouts etc. They also want to show respect to these players that have led their teams for the last couple years, and they dont want them finishing their season on the bench. This is not a stead-fast thing. There are also plenty of coaches, that will take a game that is starting to get to blow-out level and they will have in all of their subs to give them the bowl game experience.
There are plenty of other variables that go into betting into bowl games, but these are just some of the things that stick out for bowl game betting as compared to your normal college football betting.
This should be a great bowl season, and I will be posting full write-ups for each game as I do some more research on them.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
How would I do in a true Corporate Setting?
Recently, I took my licensing test in a building where a lot of corporate offices are. I realized while I was in the elevator listening to very boring, mundane small talk that I think I would be very bored in the corporate world and that I am glad I do what I do.
My job has aspects of corporate that go along with it. We have managers and procedures and all accounting has to go through certain process. There are a lot of other things that make the company I work for corporate in a sense, but being in sales is still so different then say your typical, all corporate, 9-5 workplace.
The thing that jumps out me almost every day is how we have to dress and the hours I have to work. There are so many days that I am still in sweats walking the dogs in the Am, and I see everyone leaving for work in their full suits or if their company allows, they are in a tucked in shirt with nice pants. By the time it is time for me to leave to go to work, I am ready in my jeans and whatever shirt I want to wear( hopefully flops depending on weather) and I am out the door. I don't have an exact schedule. I have a time I have to be here, but if I am late or just come in later, it is no big deal. As long as I am getting my work done, it doesn't really matter what time I get in/leave. I remember when I worked in the real corporate world, if I was 10 minutes late, people were looking at me and I could get in trouble.
There are a lot of other reasons and I know the reasons I give just sound lazy, but they are not and I love what I do. When I did work in the corporate world, i worked very hard. I would get in early, stay late, always be dressed up and I just got used to that way of life. Now that I am back in this type of work, I have gotten back into this way of life and I realize just how much better I like this. I get paid more now, I love my job way more, and I like my lifestyle more. I still get insurance. I am missing out no certain perks of the corporate world, but I also think people in the corporate world are missing out on so many percs that I have.
At the end of the day, when I really think about it, I feel i am way better suited for this type of job then compared to my old job in good old corporate America.
My job has aspects of corporate that go along with it. We have managers and procedures and all accounting has to go through certain process. There are a lot of other things that make the company I work for corporate in a sense, but being in sales is still so different then say your typical, all corporate, 9-5 workplace.
The thing that jumps out me almost every day is how we have to dress and the hours I have to work. There are so many days that I am still in sweats walking the dogs in the Am, and I see everyone leaving for work in their full suits or if their company allows, they are in a tucked in shirt with nice pants. By the time it is time for me to leave to go to work, I am ready in my jeans and whatever shirt I want to wear( hopefully flops depending on weather) and I am out the door. I don't have an exact schedule. I have a time I have to be here, but if I am late or just come in later, it is no big deal. As long as I am getting my work done, it doesn't really matter what time I get in/leave. I remember when I worked in the real corporate world, if I was 10 minutes late, people were looking at me and I could get in trouble.
There are a lot of other reasons and I know the reasons I give just sound lazy, but they are not and I love what I do. When I did work in the corporate world, i worked very hard. I would get in early, stay late, always be dressed up and I just got used to that way of life. Now that I am back in this type of work, I have gotten back into this way of life and I realize just how much better I like this. I get paid more now, I love my job way more, and I like my lifestyle more. I still get insurance. I am missing out no certain perks of the corporate world, but I also think people in the corporate world are missing out on so many percs that I have.
At the end of the day, when I really think about it, I feel i am way better suited for this type of job then compared to my old job in good old corporate America.
Betting on the NBA is done
I tried this for a while, but honestly, the draw of it is just not there. I think the biggest problem is that I am not really a fan of the NBA. Therefore, betting on it became very boring. I couldnt even watch a full game that I had money on, and that really turned me off from it. I think at the end of my betting I ended up right around even, or just a little on the plus side, but there is just no fun or joy in it for me at all, so I decided to stop. I gamble on enough, that I dont need to throw in a sport I dont really like to even watch on tv in the mix.
Hypocracy at The U, Indiana coach fired?
College Football coaches get fired all the time. At this point in my life, I have watched and followed college football long enough to know the ins and outs of the sports and what it is really all about, MONEY!!!!!
That being said, every once in a while there is a story that comes out that truly surprises me. In the last couple of weeks, Indiana and Miami both fired their head coaches. Both of these firings amaze me for different reasons. As for the money aspect of it and how I think the money affects coach hirings and firings, the BCS, etc. that will be saved for another time. For now, on to why these two firings stood out to me above any other normal season of coaches being hired/fired.
First, The coach of Indiana got fired after posting just one win in the big 10. Normally, a coach with one win in conference that gets fired is no big deal, but in this case I just dont get it. Indiana is a basketball school and it always will be. Randel-El went there and he is a NFL star and since then they have done nothing. They are in a power 6 conference and they will never, ever be able to compete with the big boys( mich, mich st, ohio st, etc). Yes, every once in a while they will have an upset win, but they will always be a basketball school and their football team will never be able to be good. They just dont recruit for that and they never will be( think Duke, wash st, temple etc).
I understand the flip side of the new big ten. They will now have enough teams to have 2 conferences and will be able to gain way more money for the conf. and they want all the schools to be able to compete more. I think that the AD and president of Indiana think that the new big ten will be able to attract a newer, bigger name coach. The real life situation is that they are Indiana and no one wants to coach there and no one wants to play for them.
Who cares if they won 1 game in conf. last year. You are Indiana, you still have a good graduation rate etc, don't fire the coach. I am not sure what they think a new coach will bring, but I don't see any way in the next 10 years the will ever be able to get more then 4 wins in conf.
NOW, for the Miami situation. This is totally different the situation mentioned above. The U used to be a powerhouse. They used to be feared and respected at the same time. They used to be favored in every game they played and every kid in the country wanted to play there. They ran into some hard times a while ago and the program was in serious trouble both with play on the field and behavior off of the field. They fell to the lowest graduation rate of players for any school in a power 6 conf.
The school president and AD held a huge press conference when they hired Randy Shannon and they said that their number one priority with this hiring was to turn the program around and to get the right kinds of kids there. They vowed that their number one priority was to get graduation rate up and winning was second. Well, 4 years later, Miami now has the third highest graduation rate in all of d-1 football. They have cut down all of the off-the-field arrests etc. The program is now cleaned up. They brought in the right coach for the job and he got done exactly what was promised. However, in that time, the talent on the field has gone dramatically downhill. The U is no longer feared, no longer respected. They are probably the 4th choice in state for kids to go to instead of being a unanimous #1. Because of that, Shannon got fired. Yes, his stats for a big time program were awful and because of that I understand the firing. What I don't understand is if you fire him, how does the AD not get fired also.
The AD brought him in and made it very clear that winning and bowl games were not top priority and that everything else was. It turns out that was all a lie, and winning and bowl games and money were the most important thing. Graduation rate, a clean program etc. were not actual priorities for them. This is not surprising at all, since it is all about money and winning, but why put on a 4-year charade about education and a clean program when all you really wanted was the complete opposite.
That being said, every once in a while there is a story that comes out that truly surprises me. In the last couple of weeks, Indiana and Miami both fired their head coaches. Both of these firings amaze me for different reasons. As for the money aspect of it and how I think the money affects coach hirings and firings, the BCS, etc. that will be saved for another time. For now, on to why these two firings stood out to me above any other normal season of coaches being hired/fired.
First, The coach of Indiana got fired after posting just one win in the big 10. Normally, a coach with one win in conference that gets fired is no big deal, but in this case I just dont get it. Indiana is a basketball school and it always will be. Randel-El went there and he is a NFL star and since then they have done nothing. They are in a power 6 conference and they will never, ever be able to compete with the big boys( mich, mich st, ohio st, etc). Yes, every once in a while they will have an upset win, but they will always be a basketball school and their football team will never be able to be good. They just dont recruit for that and they never will be( think Duke, wash st, temple etc).
I understand the flip side of the new big ten. They will now have enough teams to have 2 conferences and will be able to gain way more money for the conf. and they want all the schools to be able to compete more. I think that the AD and president of Indiana think that the new big ten will be able to attract a newer, bigger name coach. The real life situation is that they are Indiana and no one wants to coach there and no one wants to play for them.
Who cares if they won 1 game in conf. last year. You are Indiana, you still have a good graduation rate etc, don't fire the coach. I am not sure what they think a new coach will bring, but I don't see any way in the next 10 years the will ever be able to get more then 4 wins in conf.
NOW, for the Miami situation. This is totally different the situation mentioned above. The U used to be a powerhouse. They used to be feared and respected at the same time. They used to be favored in every game they played and every kid in the country wanted to play there. They ran into some hard times a while ago and the program was in serious trouble both with play on the field and behavior off of the field. They fell to the lowest graduation rate of players for any school in a power 6 conf.
The school president and AD held a huge press conference when they hired Randy Shannon and they said that their number one priority with this hiring was to turn the program around and to get the right kinds of kids there. They vowed that their number one priority was to get graduation rate up and winning was second. Well, 4 years later, Miami now has the third highest graduation rate in all of d-1 football. They have cut down all of the off-the-field arrests etc. The program is now cleaned up. They brought in the right coach for the job and he got done exactly what was promised. However, in that time, the talent on the field has gone dramatically downhill. The U is no longer feared, no longer respected. They are probably the 4th choice in state for kids to go to instead of being a unanimous #1. Because of that, Shannon got fired. Yes, his stats for a big time program were awful and because of that I understand the firing. What I don't understand is if you fire him, how does the AD not get fired also.
The AD brought him in and made it very clear that winning and bowl games were not top priority and that everything else was. It turns out that was all a lie, and winning and bowl games and money were the most important thing. Graduation rate, a clean program etc. were not actual priorities for them. This is not surprising at all, since it is all about money and winning, but why put on a 4-year charade about education and a clean program when all you really wanted was the complete opposite.
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