Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Humanitarian Bowl, Bowl game #2
This game has stay away written all over it.( of course we will all still be on it, because we are degenerates).
You have a NI team who is avg. 6.4 yards per rush( more then auburn and org) and they pretty much dominate every single stat on paper. You then have the intangibles with them. Their Head coach accepted the job at Minnesota and took his coordinator with him. Minn wanted him to start recruiting right away and not coach the bowl game. Their new coach( Dave Doeren, from Wisconsin) may be a good coach, but to ask someone to come in this late to a team/players he doesn't know and start coaching is tough.
On the other hand, Pat Hill is a great coach and will always have his team ready to play.
Suspensions:
Hill said linebacker Kyle Knox, receiver Matt Lindsay and linebacker Daniel Salinas did not accompany the team for the bowl game in Boise, Idaho.
Knox is second on the team with 74 tackles. Lindsay has 14 catches for 208 yards.
At the end of the day, I feel NI is a better team, but I will still take Fresno in this game as a small bet and in a confidence pool, they are in the bottom third. I will put a medium play on the over. I know conventional wisdom states that a running team lends towards the under due to running out the clock, but when you can eat up chunks of yards like that, scores happen a lot and play action produces tons of points. Fresno and the over are my plays for this
New Mexico Bowl, bowl game #1
This game on paper shapes up to be a blowout. As we all know wiht bowl games, motivation is a key always a key to this. How excited/deflated is each team to be in this bowl? I will say that BYU has shown over the years to be excited to be in any bowl game.
If you were to use just power ratings, this would show BYU at 52 and UTEP at 114. UTEP SOS is awful and the teams they have beat are not good at all( hence the awful power rating).
On the other hand:
This isn't a new phenomenon -- UTEP's win over BYU in 1985 as a 36-point dog was the biggest upset ever until the Syracuse/UL and Stanford/USC upsets in 2007 -- but under Price favorites of 7 to 17 points in UTEP games are just 25-16 straight up and 14-27 ATS.
On top of that, UTEP finished final exams last week (Wednesday, I believe), while BYU's finals run from Monday through Friday this week.
All of that being said, I will have a medium play on BYU. As for the confidence pools I am in, this is in the top 5 games for me. UTEP may find a way to cover, but they do not have the talent to win this game outright. I could lean a little towards the under since BYU has been improving each game with thier def, but betting an under in a bowl game is a risky bet.
Vacation ruins a diet!!!
Friday:
- pretzel bites and a soda at airport( with cheese dipping sauce) going to Austin.
- slice of pizza in carry-over airport
- Gatorade and sweetarts in hotel room
- chips and salsa at dinner
- steak fajita ( tex mex style) for dinner
- 2 beers and a mexican martini at dinner
- 3-4 liquor drinks, 3-4 shots, 2-3 beers at bars after dinner
Saturday:
- Gatorade
- fountain soda coke
- breakfast taco and steak taco for brunch
- 2 whiskey drinks at dinner
- 2 pieces of bread at dinner( very nice steak house)
- 8 oz. filet
- side of asparagus
- side of au gratin potatoes
Sunday:
- double cheeseburger
- fries
- large fountain soda
- large calzone
- slice of pizza
Monday:
- brisket sandwich
- beer
- sausage
- 1/2 pd cheeseburger
- Cheetos
- hot chocolate with baileys and whiskey in it
- 4 beers
Tuesday:
- iced coffee
- sausage, egg and cheese biscuit
- hash browns
- 4 slices of pizza
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Bowl Season-watching and betting on it.
As far as the games go, there will always be teams that make certain bowls that will be discussed and teams that did not deserve it( think of the ncaa bracket when a team is a #5 seed and everyone says they should have been a 10 seed) and you will also see teams that deserve to be in a bowl game or in a certain bowl game( look at az. state this year ).
As for the gambling side of it, it is also a great time for ncaa bettors/fans. You have plenty of time to evaluate and study each game. You have, for the most part( new years day etc. get a little busy) only 1-2 games a day, so you are not betting a huge amount of games on one day. If you have been betting on the games all year and know you teams, bowl season is always the time to pad your winnings( or re-coup losses) for the ncaa year.
When it comes to capping the bowl games, you have to look a little past how you would normally cap. Most bettors, or at least the ones that really care, will all use the same things. Power ratings, injuries, home field, previous match ups, etc. Obviously, the biggest differential and the biggest decision maker is your personal feelings towards the game. When it comes to bowl games, a lot of those same principals are still in play, but you have to consider some other things. First, home field advantage is not something you can just figure out. You have to do a little more research to see how many tickets each school was allotted, how many of said tickets were sold, and how many were bought by the other school. This is all information that can be found online. There are random occurrences where a team is very, very close to their home field, but that is a rarity during bowl season.
Next, you have to pay attention to motivation. Yes, this should be looked at for every game during the regular season s far as must-win games and things like that, but in bowl games it is a whole different animal. We see this every year, you have teams(think Oklahoma) that are disappointed in either their overall season or disappointed in the crappy bowl they got sent to instead of a good bowl they were hoping for. These are still college kids and unlike the pros, emotions play a huge factor in this. You need to look at both teams playing and take a look at their season. Did they go 7-5 and they are ecstatic to even make a bowl game( think Washington, army, etc) or did they go 8-4 and they are crushed because they were thinking they should be a 10-2 game. The point is, dont just see a team you assume is way better and will win/cover. You have to think about if they have given up on the season or if this bowl will make their whole season.
Another thing to pay close attention to, at least way more then the regular season games is suspensions for either a half or the game. I bring this up because the past always repeats itself, no matter what every coach will have you believe. You have so many games in so many cities where these kids have never been. Most of these teams are there at least a week in advance and every season you see people out missing curfew, you have people out drinking etc, and every year key people get suspended from a bowl game. This is more of a problem with the bowl games in huge, fun cities such as Miami, Vegas, Austin, etc, but again, make sure you pay attention to this.
Another thing you have to pay attention to( more for overs) is certain key players that are either seniors or juniors that you know are leaving school( moore, luck, locker, etc). You see coaches wanting to show them off and help their draft status. The game plan isnt much different then it normally would be, but when it comes down to the 4th quarter and late in the game, if it is a blow out, you seem to see these coaches leave their players in and let them show off a little more for the scouts etc. They also want to show respect to these players that have led their teams for the last couple years, and they dont want them finishing their season on the bench. This is not a stead-fast thing. There are also plenty of coaches, that will take a game that is starting to get to blow-out level and they will have in all of their subs to give them the bowl game experience.
There are plenty of other variables that go into betting into bowl games, but these are just some of the things that stick out for bowl game betting as compared to your normal college football betting.
This should be a great bowl season, and I will be posting full write-ups for each game as I do some more research on them.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
How would I do in a true Corporate Setting?
My job has aspects of corporate that go along with it. We have managers and procedures and all accounting has to go through certain process. There are a lot of other things that make the company I work for corporate in a sense, but being in sales is still so different then say your typical, all corporate, 9-5 workplace.
The thing that jumps out me almost every day is how we have to dress and the hours I have to work. There are so many days that I am still in sweats walking the dogs in the Am, and I see everyone leaving for work in their full suits or if their company allows, they are in a tucked in shirt with nice pants. By the time it is time for me to leave to go to work, I am ready in my jeans and whatever shirt I want to wear( hopefully flops depending on weather) and I am out the door. I don't have an exact schedule. I have a time I have to be here, but if I am late or just come in later, it is no big deal. As long as I am getting my work done, it doesn't really matter what time I get in/leave. I remember when I worked in the real corporate world, if I was 10 minutes late, people were looking at me and I could get in trouble.
There are a lot of other reasons and I know the reasons I give just sound lazy, but they are not and I love what I do. When I did work in the corporate world, i worked very hard. I would get in early, stay late, always be dressed up and I just got used to that way of life. Now that I am back in this type of work, I have gotten back into this way of life and I realize just how much better I like this. I get paid more now, I love my job way more, and I like my lifestyle more. I still get insurance. I am missing out no certain perks of the corporate world, but I also think people in the corporate world are missing out on so many percs that I have.
At the end of the day, when I really think about it, I feel i am way better suited for this type of job then compared to my old job in good old corporate America.
Betting on the NBA is done
Hypocracy at The U, Indiana coach fired?
That being said, every once in a while there is a story that comes out that truly surprises me. In the last couple of weeks, Indiana and Miami both fired their head coaches. Both of these firings amaze me for different reasons. As for the money aspect of it and how I think the money affects coach hirings and firings, the BCS, etc. that will be saved for another time. For now, on to why these two firings stood out to me above any other normal season of coaches being hired/fired.
First, The coach of Indiana got fired after posting just one win in the big 10. Normally, a coach with one win in conference that gets fired is no big deal, but in this case I just dont get it. Indiana is a basketball school and it always will be. Randel-El went there and he is a NFL star and since then they have done nothing. They are in a power 6 conference and they will never, ever be able to compete with the big boys( mich, mich st, ohio st, etc). Yes, every once in a while they will have an upset win, but they will always be a basketball school and their football team will never be able to be good. They just dont recruit for that and they never will be( think Duke, wash st, temple etc).
I understand the flip side of the new big ten. They will now have enough teams to have 2 conferences and will be able to gain way more money for the conf. and they want all the schools to be able to compete more. I think that the AD and president of Indiana think that the new big ten will be able to attract a newer, bigger name coach. The real life situation is that they are Indiana and no one wants to coach there and no one wants to play for them.
Who cares if they won 1 game in conf. last year. You are Indiana, you still have a good graduation rate etc, don't fire the coach. I am not sure what they think a new coach will bring, but I don't see any way in the next 10 years the will ever be able to get more then 4 wins in conf.
NOW, for the Miami situation. This is totally different the situation mentioned above. The U used to be a powerhouse. They used to be feared and respected at the same time. They used to be favored in every game they played and every kid in the country wanted to play there. They ran into some hard times a while ago and the program was in serious trouble both with play on the field and behavior off of the field. They fell to the lowest graduation rate of players for any school in a power 6 conf.
The school president and AD held a huge press conference when they hired Randy Shannon and they said that their number one priority with this hiring was to turn the program around and to get the right kinds of kids there. They vowed that their number one priority was to get graduation rate up and winning was second. Well, 4 years later, Miami now has the third highest graduation rate in all of d-1 football. They have cut down all of the off-the-field arrests etc. The program is now cleaned up. They brought in the right coach for the job and he got done exactly what was promised. However, in that time, the talent on the field has gone dramatically downhill. The U is no longer feared, no longer respected. They are probably the 4th choice in state for kids to go to instead of being a unanimous #1. Because of that, Shannon got fired. Yes, his stats for a big time program were awful and because of that I understand the firing. What I don't understand is if you fire him, how does the AD not get fired also.
The AD brought him in and made it very clear that winning and bowl games were not top priority and that everything else was. It turns out that was all a lie, and winning and bowl games and money were the most important thing. Graduation rate, a clean program etc. were not actual priorities for them. This is not surprising at all, since it is all about money and winning, but why put on a 4-year charade about education and a clean program when all you really wanted was the complete opposite.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
betting on nba
I do know that a team name doesnt mean anything, and the most important things are teams on road trips, back to back games vs. fresh teams, certain ref tendancies for overs/under, ref tendancies for foul calls( all stats from prev. seasons are available), and matchups.
I will be updating my sheet every day, and I will only be betting $20 a game for the whole season and we will see how it goes.
Monday, September 27, 2010
going to bars
It used to be when I would go out, people would say things like they haven't seen me for a while and ask where I have been and stuff like I haven't been around just because they didnt see me at bars. That used to get me to almost get defensive and it would make me think that I need to be out more etc. I them realized that most of the people that say that have never once invited me to go anywhere with them that isnt a bar, and that if they really were my friend or really wanted to hang out, they would invite me to their house or to a party or anywhere that wasnt a bar. I am now at the point where when people say that to me, I just responded, you are right, I have been doing other things to enjoy my life. If someone is only going to be my friend if I am out to a bar with them, then I don't need that person to be a friend.
Don't get me wrong, I still love to have fun and I love a good time, but I don't need that good time to be spending all day and all night at a bar just getting wasted. Last Sunday, a bunch of us were out at a bar for the Ravens game. The game ended and we went home and hung out and did things and had a great rest of the Sunday. The majority of my friends stayed out, got wasted all day and night etc, and they all said they had a great time. I know they had their fun, but that type of fun of spending all day and night at a bar is just not appealing to me anymore and I really don't need to be doing that to have fun.
I guess this all stems from the fact that I am happy with my life, I love my gf, I love being with her and spending time with her, and sitting with her on our couch just doing nothing is more fun and enjoyable to me then any night at the bars. I just hate that it took me this long in my life to realize it. I do hope that the people I know that are still going out to bars 2-4 days every week and getting blackout wasted all the time, will eventually find something else that makes them happy instead of getting wasted all the time. I am not saying that is a bad thing, because I used to do it, and it can be a lot of fun, I just think for me, at my age and where I am in my life, that part of my life is behind me and having fun for a couple hours is one thing, but the all day and all night drinking fests at a bar and the hangovers and all of that are something in the past for me.
true happiness
I realize now, that all the times I thought I was happy, I was not truly happy, it was more of a shield and a cover and I would just ignore all of the down things. Now I am at a point, where if something is wrong or upsetting me etc, I deal with it, but at the end of the day, it doesn't get me down or stress me out anymore. I know that is because I am truly happy, and I know that being happy with myself and my life is the most important thing. It is so great to know that I am happy from minute I wake up until the minute I fall asleep. I have been waiting a long time to be this happy, and I finally glad that my life is in a place where I am truly happy.